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With nine goals in his initial seven league matches, Pep Guardiola's attacker Erling Haaland has begun the season with incredible momentum.

Even though this doesn't represent his strongest opening to a campaign - he scored 11 goals in his first seven games in two seasons ago and 10 last season - it still puts him three strikes clear in the initial race for this season's Premier League Golden Boot.

The reality that none of his nine goals have been penalties makes it even more impressive.

Why Haaland Stands Out

Certainly, fitness issues could potentially disrupt in the final top scorer outcome, but there are two primary explanations why Haaland is such a strong favourite for the prize so soon in the campaign.

First, the total of conversions he has currently registered - and, of similar importance, the number and quality of opportunities he's receiving.

Furthermore, the slow start his regular challengers for the prize have made.

Expected Goals Analysis

A player's expected goals number (xG) indicates how many goals a English league attacker has traditionally converted from the quantity and caliber of opportunities he's received.

It is not a statistic haphazardly selected by statistics boffins, but by English top-flight records.

And if we look at attackers' xG statistics in the English top division so far this season from normal play, the Scandinavian attacker is obtaining considerably more quality chances to convert than any other player.

Actually, even if Haaland wasn't superior at scoring from situations than any other player in the league, he would nevertheless have converted more than twice as many goals as all other players.

Chance Creation Breakdown

That is demonstrated by analyzing the quantity and caliber of chances that players have had in the English first division so far.

Haaland has attempted 29 efforts so far this campaign, a dozen more than all other attackers.

That is actually not particularly unusual for him - he had previously registered more non-spot-kick efforts at this point in the last two seasons (30 in last season and 34 in the 2024-25 campaign).

What's particularly exceptional even for Haaland is the standard of scoring situations he has had this season. His shots have had an expected goals rating of an average of 0.27.

What that figure means is that players have historically converted the shots he has had at a 27 percent conversion rate.

Of players to take at ten or more efforts, only Stamford Bridge player Enzo Fernandez has had easier chances to net per shot - thanks to a few simple finishes against the Hammers and Seagulls.

City striker's xG statistic of 0.27 per shot is considerably superior than the 0.17 xG per shot he had at the opening of last term.

In short, the scoring situations he has had in this campaign have been notably easier to find the net from in a realigned Citizens squad than those at the beginning of last season.

Past Performance Analysis

Beginning a campaign so strongly is, as mentioned above, not uncommon for Haaland. Following seven matches last term he had scored 10 goals - four more than every other footballer and six additional compared to Mohamed Salah.

Yet it was the Liverpool forward who claimed the top scorer award with twenty-nine strikes, a touchdown more than the Manchester City striker.

This season, while Haaland has opened with incredible momentum, Salah has registered half as many goals and had half the scoring situations (xG) than at this stage last season.

Indeed this has been the quietest start to a Premier League term the Egypt forward has made.

Challengers' Quiet Beginning

It is not just Salah who has begun modestly either. When examining at the eleven leading goalscorers in the Premier League last campaign, Haaland has registered an equal amount goals as the additional ten attackers combined so far.

Be it because of fitness issues - Yoane Wissa, Cole Palmer and Jorgen Strand Larsen - long-running transfer sagas in Alexander Isak's case or merely because their clubs have faced difficulties (multiple established scorers), Haaland's potential challengers in the race for the Golden Boot have failed to perform so far.

European Top Scorer Competition

While Haaland looks the obvious frontrunner for the Premier League scoring title, what about the European top scorer prize that is awarded to the attacker netting the highest number in Europe's top-five leagues?

That contest is far more competitive at this initial phase because Harry Kane and Kylian Mbappe have similarly opened in great form, with 11 and 9 conversions respectively.

The fact Haaland has registered multiple conversions and has the highest xG of the three without having taken any spot-kicks makes him the likely winner.

However, because the English and French stars are some of the most excellent converters in European football in terms of overperforming their xG, the competition remains open.